eWeek has a good article with this title today by Nicolas Kolakowski. The author suggests that there is no indication that ereaders are on the verge of becoming ubiquitous and the inrush of “me too” items might create a minor bubble. He feels that the potential game changer is not proprietary devices, but software which could broaden the market to new customers. I agree with his conclusion:
The companies that will likely win that scenario in the longer term, though, are those with the infrastructure to support an ecosystem of libraries, software and devices. Which suggests that, no matter how the market eventually plays out, a not-insignificant portion of e-reader manufacturers currently on the market are likely doomed to failure.
Mr. Kolakowski has the most reasoned notion I have read to this point.
I haven’t had the chance to read the article in full yet, but I still can’t help but be amused. Just a few short months ago we were all talking about how the e-reader market wasn’t “mature” yet, as there were only a couple of major entrants.
Now suddenly it’s “oversaturated”? When did this happen?
I heard a speaker say recently that in any market the progress usually goes something like this: First come the inovators, then the copy cats, then the idiots. So where to you think we are in that progression now?
Oversaturated?
Not unless all the models shown at CES actually ship. It helps to understand how CES works, I think:
CES is where existing and *aspiring* vendors show their gadgets to the press and *retailers* in order to build up hype and distribution channels. Many of the products shown are just trial balloons and fanciful wishes.
First off, half of the Kindle-wannabes shown at CES will find no North American distribution besides (maybe) an online website or two. If that.
Of the ones that drum up enough interest, half will fail to make a timely introduction or will be obsolete by the time they find a willing retailer (KMart, Walgreens, Radio Shack, Future Shop, Canada Tire, etc) and of the ones that actually hit mainstream retailers another half will get a meaningless market share and vanish. (Overstock, Tiger, etc)
We’ve seen this before (CF: PC Clones circa 1985, MP3 players ca 2002, etc); we will see it again. 3D TVs, methinks… 😉
Right up front, we can pretty much deprecate every single 6 inch white reader with a keyboard running ADE. They may make a dent in China and other markets but not in NorthAm or Europe. (Yes, that includes the iRiver.)
As for the rest, well, most of the rest are prototypes and vaporware. Color eink? Not this calendar year. The tablets? Roadkill for the unicorn. The newsprint saviors? Expect delays and redesigns.
Anything left?
Oh, yes; the Samsung slider.
That one’s real. It’ll get maybe 5% market share if they’re lucky.
Yes, the ebook reader market *is* immature.
Part of that immaturity is reflected in the idea that there is room for 50 different glossy white Kindle-look-a-likes, all running the exact same immature Adobe software, all competing with Sony and (maybe) B&N, for whatever part of the market wants a “kindle” that *doesn’t* connect to Amazon.
Uh, riiighhht!
From what I’ve seen of CES 2010, the ebook market in late-January looks *exactly* as it did in early January; two distinct and *separate* markets: one beholden to the Amazon book store and the rest in Adobe’s pocket. In the latter category, Sony and a cast of thousands will try to convince people that really, Adobe lock-in is way better than Amazon lock-in and easily worth a premium on the hardware and the books.
They might succeed.
Or they might all get steamrollered by Apple’s unicorn in two weeks.
(Me, I’m skeptical of both scenarios.)
Next up: everybody fails.
Everybody goes back to the drawing board. Maybe we’ll see some real progress by CES 2011.
Or maybe the mindshare leader decides to redefine the game with the Kindle 3 next April.
I agree with Felix that thinking about CES announcements as if they were real products is a path to insanity.
I’d love to see a rich and thriving market for reading devices but getting prices down is more important right now than adding a bunch of spiffy features.
As for the Apple Tablet, well, Apple has had some hits…and some flops. If they come in under $500, I’ll be shocked (and may just go shopping). I’d actually be surprised if it’s much less than $1K (unless it comes with some monthly subscription which doesn’t work for me) and that’s too much.
Rob Preece
Publisher
I had an ebookwise for a few years, and switched from there to stanza on the ipod. I don’t want to be carrying another device with me, I like something that I always have with me. I’ve been contemplating switching from an ipod to an iphone, but all the tablet rumours have me holding off. The dell streak out of all the CES announcements looks to be closest to my interest in a book reader. Now if apple comes out with a 5″ tablet (or even 4″ for that matter, something only slightly larger then the iphone) at a price less then $500, it would probably be my choice… 5″ and $400? Immediate first choice, and forget about the other readers on the market. The flip side of that though is while reading novels on a 5″ screen is fine (hey a 3″ screen is fine) trying to read textbooks/magazines/comics might be a whole different story.