Forrester Research's 10 ebook/ereader predictions for 2010

image Paid Content has an article from Forrester Research with the following predictions. In the article each prediction is accompanied by a narrative explanation:

E-ink will lose its near-100% market share

Deal-screen mobile phones and netbooks will eat into ereader demand

Apps will make non-reading devices more ebook friendly

eReaders will get apps too

Amazon will launch a suite of touchscreen ereaders

B&N will steal market share from Amazon and Sony

eBook content sales will top $500 million in the US

eTextbooks will become more accessible, but sales will be modest

Magazine and newspaper publishers will launch their own apps and devices

China, India, Brazil and the EU will propel global growth but the US will still be the biggest market

1 Comment on Forrester Research's 10 ebook/ereader predictions for 2010

  1. Predictions are difficult. Some of the comments at the bottom of that article are unfavorable — but it is not simple to foresee the future, either far or near. A proverb from ancient China, written thousands of years ago, says: “He who could see even one day ahead would be wealthier than a hundred emperors.”

    The two that predictions that interest me most are:

    7. Ebook content sales (I assume this means the ebooks themselves, not including the ebook reading devices) will soar to $ 500 million dollars in 2010 — up from $ 109 million this year (2009).

    A growth rate of more than 450 % next year? … Pass the ebooks and break out the champagne.

    8. Sales of e-textbooks will not rise sharply in 2010.

    Why? The article answers: “Publishers aren’t ready to relinquish control over how their content is sold and displayed.”

    Which is exactly what Felix Torres said yesterday, in a Teleread comment to Betsy Garret. (Bravo, Felix!)

    But now I wonder: If useful e-textbook reading devices come along — and the article mentions the Entourage eDGe — will students and teachers embrace them like long lost sons? … Will there then need to be oodles of e-content for these superior devices? … And will publishers leap wildly into that tremendous market to supply the content? … If you build it (the ideal ebook reading device), the etextbooks will come. I’m going to disagree with the article, and predict a very good year — during the second half of 2010 — for etextbooks.

    The article neglected to mention
    a) EPUB
    b) DRM
    c) Piracy.

    All three of the above will see enormous growth and development in 2010 !

    There are more, more, more ebook reading devices — in variety and quantity sold — coming in 2010. Publishers and authors who want to win big in 2010 should offer their ebooks in open formats that can be displayed on every (or, on most) ebook reading device.

    Michael Pastore
    50 Benefits of Ebooks

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