"Combined sales of the Amazon Kindle and the Sony Reader will be 1,000,000 units in 2008," says Evan Schnittman at Oxford University Press. "This estimate is based on solid data" such as PVI stats on E Ink display shipments
Extrapolating from various sources, he "can easily imagine the success of Kindle and Reader dramatically expanding next year and growing by a factor of five. If that happens, then the formula above leads to a completely new e-book economy. Five million devices would mean e-book sales of $1,200,000,000, which, by my estimation, is 1.3% of the current global book market of $90,000,000,000…
"I personally don’t see publishing becoming a 50% digital business as books and CD’s are completely different animals. But I sure can see that the 3% – 4% I once predicted isn’t such a crazy notion any more. And yes, I believe in e-books.
So what do you think, gang? Read Evan Schnittman’s post and see if he’s accounting for all the factors. Meanwhile keep in mind that E Ink readers are just part of the picture. How about the OLPC machine and other mini laptops, not to mention cell phones? (Via PersonaNonData.)