Digital Book World: Industry forecast – results of the DBW/Forrester 2010 publishing survey

DSCF1067.JPGJames McQuivey of Forrester.

In 2010 ereader prices fell close to $100 and 10.5 million people in the US own a dedicated ereader. New reading form factors were introduced. Tablets in about 10 million US hands right now – primarily the iPad. A third of the people who own an iPad own a Kindle. Nearly 1 Billion was spent on ebooks in the US alone.

In 2011 20+ million people will read ebooks on a reader or tablet. $1.3 billion will be spent ion ebooks at the bare minimum. They can’t even forecast the impact on non-traditional eformats.

Are publishers ready? Surveyed publishing execs to find out. Done in September 2010, tested survey on 35 execs representing 27 publishers which account for 65% of SS publishing revenue.

89% optimistic about digital transition; 74% says readers will be better off; 66% say people will read more; 83% say their companies fcan manage digital transition; 63% say have a digital plan in place; 80% believe that their company needs significant retraining

Big questions to them: more execs think that tablets will win over ereaders and 46% agree with this. 29% feel e-ink devices best; 83% release ebooks simultaneously with hardback; 52% price wholesale rather than agency. App are still problematic: 46% say have potential and 48% say that are too expensive to develop right now. Just a third think that they represent a significant revenue stream.

52% expect print sales to decrease in 2011 somewhat; on average respondents felt that ebooks will account for half of all books sold by late 2014; however they expect the same thing to happen to their own books until mid 2015.

Will be extending the survey in 2011.

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