A lot of numbers are coming out in the press about the iPad, but nobody seems to be putting them together.
Apple is saying that it sold around 300,000 iPads (in-store plus pre-orders) on day one. This gets a lot of media hype. Apple says that iPad users downloaded about 250,000 ebooks on day one as well. This also gets a lot of hype. What does not get a lot of hype is the simple analysis that 16% of all iPad users did not download any books, and of the remaining 84% the average download was less than one book per person. Also, we don’t know how many of these downloads were from the free public domain books that are available in the Apple bookstore.
If I were a publisher I would be wondering if Apple is my savior after all (and also wondering if I still have the same amount of clout with Amazon).
Update: Sarah Weinman wrote me to say that she did a similar article yesterday for Daily Finance. It’s entitled Why Apple’s iPad E-book Numbers Are Confusing and Misleading.
On the other hand, we don’t know how many app downloads were ibooks. And we don’t know how many apps were book apps. And we don’t know how many apps were ereader apps. On top of which we don’t know how many books were bought from those ereader apps.
We could be talking about a good situation or a bad one, the truth is we just don’t know!
Eoin
Not only that, but everybody who downloaded the iBooks app got the Winnie the Pooh book included. So is that counted?
I hate how secretive and paranoid Apple acts sometimes. I get the feeling that if there were no SEC and accounting rules, the company would never tell us anything outside the carefully-controlled PR.
— asotir
Probably because they are right now transferring their current eBooks over.
Those numbers don’t make any sense. If 16% did not download any books and 84% downloaded, one average, less than one book per person it means the a bunch of the people in the 84% category didn’t download any books. Otherwise the average couldn’t be below 1 per person. But if they didn’t download any books then why are they in the 84% category and not in the 16% category?
Beyond that I think is way to early to say how the iPad may affect the ebook market. You’ll have to wait a few months, at least.
Oh come on, its the first day.
It means that 16% don’t download books on the first day. That means less than a book a day on average on the fist day.
I would suggest that the numbers are simply a reflection of early adopter bias and tell us nothing about long-term usage patterns or customer profile.
Going in we knew that many people were pre-ordering the iPad because they wanted a web-surfing pad, others because they wanted a large-format iPod, and others because they wanted a color ebook reader.
It is as unreasonable to expect that every single buyer was going to rush and buy a dozen ebooks as it is to assume that each of those 250000 books was sold to a separate customer.
Add in that that number includes free PD titles and commercial buys and all we can say is that the majority of day one iPad buyers weren’t as interested in spending their first iPad day reading ebooks as in other iPad uses.
Hardly a shock; day one buyers of consumer electronics are more likely to be gadget freaks than dedicated readers.
This is hardly surprising news – after all, on the first day many iPad owners were probably just getting used to their new machine and sampling around. Also, what’s so odd about having one book at a time?
On my iPhone I currently have just three free classics (including 20,000 Leagues under the Sea, of which I can say that Disney really took the original to a new storytelling level).
Point is, I’ve had my iPhone for several months before even getting around to reading a book. I reckon many iPad owners could follow the same trajectory.
I have just had a service submit my ebooks to Apple for inclusion in their iBookstore, and I have yet to see what will happen. I think people are worrying needlessly about events which have not happened yet. I mean, the device was just introduced! Most iPad users will be “techies” who want to be the first kid on the block to own one, not readers of books. As with every machine in creation, the bugs have to be worked out first to see any meaningful numbers. As for Apple being secretive about them, they take their example from Amazon, which is the true miser of information par excellence. When book information groups like BISG cannot pry open the clam to get at stats which will only shore up Amazon’s position as a bookseller, it is no wonder that Apple will do the same. Let things percolate for a bit before we can start complaining.
On the contrary, I think if 84% of iPad users intend to use the iPad as a reading device, that’s huge for the publishing industry. The number of books should increase over time.
You know, even a new iPod owner who’s never read a full-length book in their life will download one to see and show off to others the new gadget’s capabilities. Page turning with your finger on the screen, ooh ahh! Then never another book. The numbers mean nothing.