Where did all those tablets go? Why is the tablet market 100 million units smaller than expected? Re/code writer Arik Hesseldahl has reached much the same conclusion I did anecdotally about tablet sales. People are using their devices longer, and differently, than they used to.
First, the ‘using them longer’ issue. I use my iPad primarily for reading e-books, light Internet browsing and a little bit of YouTube. I like curling up on the couch and not being tied to a desk, so the form factor is great for me. And I am not much of a gamer. I enjoy games, but they irritate my latent carpal tunnel issues, so I try and limit those activities. Therefore, I am not pushing my tablet to its limits. Even my several-years-old iPad Air—which I purchased as a discounted previous-gen model when a new one was released—is not going to have any problems handling the Kindle app and a little bit of Facebook. So, why upgrade? Unless something happens to it (I replaced my iPad Mini with a cheaper Fire Tablet after the digitizer died) I can stay with this model indefinitely. We still have iPad 2s at school which work fine. If you are using this tablet primarily to read, you just won’t be pushing it far enough to need a regular upgrade.
Second, the ‘using it differently’ issue. I think they expected that these tablets would be full-on laptop replacements. Indeed, Hesseldahl points out that the one area of the tablet market which is experiencing growth is the hybrid category with detachable keyboard and stylus support. But what we’ve simultaneously seen is the growth of the ‘bigger phone’ market. If you are using your tablet as I am, for reading and light media consumption, a bigger phone might make more sense than a smaller tablet. And if you really do need a laptop, then a less-powerful tablet which costs just as much might not work for you—and then, again, you would satisfy your tablet fix with a large phone, rather than a small tablet.
As the market has matured, what we are seeing, in other words, is a focus on function rather than a seduction by a shiny toy. If I look at what I am doing and am satisfied doing it with devices I have already, I won’t upgrade. Since I do use a computer for work tasks, all I really need in a portable device is the Kindle software and a web browser. Many of my older tablets can perform these tasks just fine. The gamers, they may have to upgrade more often. But not me!
Image credit: Here. Yes, that’s an old Nook-related photo. But we couldn’t resist. – DR
The tablet sales didn’t go anywhere.
That estimate was just a wild guess, and should never have been taken seriously. That fact one blogger used it says more about the blogger than it does about the tablet market.
In other words, he’s a fool.
If anything, it’s instructive about the dangers of trying to prognosticate. When e-readers were first introduced, nobody could have imagined tablets getting as popular as they are now. When tablets were first introduced, nobody could have imagined the phablet could come along and usurp much of the tablet’s mojo. And who knows what the next gimmick will be that steals phablets’ fire? (Virtual reality? Augmented reality?)
It’s always interesting to see in what crazy new way reality exceeds peoples’ earlier expectations.