The organizers of the 2008 Frankfurt Book Fair have just published the results of their survey “How will digitization shape the future of publishing?” The results are so interesting that I thought it would be worth publishing the press release in full. Here it is:
Frankfurt, 13/10/2008 – The organisers of the Frankfurt Book Fair – the global meeting place for the book world – have conducted a major survey to find out how digitisation will influence the future of the publishing industry, and who will be the driving force behind it. Over 1,000 industry professionals from over 30 countries responded to the survey, issued via the Frankfurt Book Fair Newsletter. The most interesting results:
• China’s digital influence in international publishing predicted to increase threefold in next five years
• consumers, Amazon, Google believed to drive the digitisation process
• e-content will overtake traditional books in sales by 2018
• online bookselling named as most important development of the past 60 years
As the much-hyped e-readers hit the stores, and digitisation continues to revolutionize all aspects of the book trade, this year over 70 per cent of respondents revealed that they feel ready for the digital challenge. The survey also reveals that current opinion is divided on the future of the e-books and digital content versus the printed word. 40 per cent of respondents expect e-content to overtake traditional book sales as early as 2018 – whereas a third predict that this will never happen.
Perhaps more surprisingly still, almost 60 per cent of respondents do not currently use e-books and e-readers at all, and 66 per cent of industry professionals still expect traditional books to dominate the market in five years time, with very few expecting e-books (seven per cent) or e-readers (two per cent) to be the main sources of revenue by 2013.
The industry predicted, however, that consumer attitudes would evolve – with over half thinking that Internet users will be more willing to pay for digital content in five years time than now.
Who is really in charge?
When asked who was driving the move towards digitisation in the book industry, only seven per cent felt that publishers were leading the way:
• 22 per cent said that consumers were pushing the move towards digitisation
• online retailers like Amazon (21 per cent), Google (20 per cent), and the telecommunications sector (13 per cent) were not far behind
• only two per cent felt that authors were driving this aspect of the industry – and governments lagged even further behind with only one per cent
Who is currently leading the sector in digitisation?
• over half said the US (51 per cent)
• Japan was in second place, with 15 per cent, followed by Europe – excluding the UK – at 11 per cent
• only five per cent named the UK as the dominant market in terms of digitisation
Which market will be leading the sector in digitisation in five years time?
Respondents predicted that the international balance will shift in the coming years:
• only 29 per cent predict that the US would still be leading the way
• China followed with 28 per cent
• respondents still expected Europe (17 per cent) and the UK (three per cent) to be trailing in this area
Challenges facing the industry
70 per cent of respondents may feel ready for the digital challenge, but industry professionals nevertheless recognised the need to work together to tackle certain issues. The following top four concerns will be discussed at length during this year’s Frankfurt Book Fair:
• copyright – 28 per cent
• digital rights management – 22 per cent
• standard format (such as epub) – 21 per cent
• retail price maintenance – 16 per cent
When asked how prepared interviewee’s companies were, they named three main areas in which they felt that more input was needed
• knowledge and strategy – including market research, and understanding and developing new business models (26 per cent)
• networking – with new co-operations and business partners (22 per cent)
• technical infrastructure (20 per cent)
Digitisation opens up new fields of co-operation. With which other sectors should the publishing industry work more closely?
• 22 per cent thought that mobile handset manufacturers and networks would be the most important future partners
• film (20 per cent), other consumer goods (19 per cent) and the music industry (18 per cent) followed
• only 13 per cent thought that the gaming industry was an important future collaboration
60 years in publishing – past and future
In this 60th anniversary year of the Frankfurt Book Fair, industry professionals were asked to look back over the major developments in the past six decades:
• 39 per cent cited online bookselling as the most important development in publishing in the past 60 years
• other main developments identified were marketing (20 per cent), book fairs (15 per cent) and chain store bookselling (17 per cent)
The survey looked at how digitisation might shape the future of publishing, and whether some of the main components of the industry would still be around in 60 years time:
• 25 per cent forecast that the retail bookseller would be obsolete in 60 years
• the agent’s demise was also predicted by 21 per cent, and a similarly bleak future was expected for editors (14 per cent)
• 12 per cent of industry professionals think that e-readers are a passing craze, and will be gone in 60 years’ time
Juergen Boos, Director of the Frankfurt Book Fair comments: “The Frankfurt Book Fair brings together thousands of publishing and media professionals, and the annual survey is a chance to take stock of the new trends and changes affecting the industry. This year the results offer a fascinating insight into how digitisation – identified in 2007 as publishing’s major challenge – might shape all aspects of the book trade in years to come. The results are thought-provoking: such as China’s predicted dominance in the digital sector in coming years, the recognised need for new co-operations with other industries, and the expectation that despite technological developments, the printed book will still be around in years to come. The 2008 Frankfurt Book Fair aims once again to ensure that the industry is well-equipped for these developments with a range of seminars and events focusing on the digital future.”
Wow! That was a lot of interesting information. Thanks for posting it.
I also have a sense that bookstores are not long for this world. Yes, many people love them and many are busy, but as the technology for delivering written content shifts, I don’t see how business models can support large retail spaces for bookselling. A bookstore, no matter how big, will always have a limited selection compared to online sellers.
It seems that bookstores will have to go the way of music stores. People still be actual music CDs, but they no longer need stores in which to browse for them.
After reading this press release, I realized why publishers are having difficulty with the shifting business to ebooks. With books, they were in control of the technology. Design and typeset a book and have it printed. Now they have to create content for presentation on any number of gizmos that are developed by other tech companies.
Some of their top four concerns worry me—DRM, for instance, is never a good idea. And ‘retail price maintenance’ to me says they want to try and keep prices the same as for print books and somehow hoodwink people into paying it, which to me is ridiculous because they are not the same thing. I think they need to learn their lesson from the tanking of the music business due in part to idiot rights holders not providing until too late a forum for customers with money to come and spend it. It is not about what they want, it’s about what the customers want, and the ‘winner’ of the new publishing sweepstakes will be the one who provides the easiest way for customers to legitimately buy good content at a fair price.
Great information!
I think the whole standard format thing is a red herring in the long-term. In 10 years (and even now) only a niche audience will be using small devices that require content in a reflow format. By 2018 larger displays that are portable and color make PDF a perfectly acceptable format for reading ebooks without any loss of typographic aesthetics found in well-designed printed books. Many readers will continue to care about reading aesthetics despite the chorus of technophiles who don’t. PDF is already a byproduct of almost every book published today.
Regardless of that issue, the most exciting aspect of e-content is in opening distribution channels, which creates tremendous opportunities for new publishers. We’ll see the emergence of publishing empires that don’t even exist yet, publishers who produce only e-content and digital print runs.
I disagree. I think more people than ever will be reading on cell phones or multifunction devices.