According to a press release I received from mediaIDEAS about their latest report:
“Over the next 10 years, the magazine industry will experience deep-rooted change,” said the report’s author, David Renard, “from primarily a print-oriented business to one where digital products will represent the largest share of a smaller periodical industry. We expect digital to be the primary source of revenue for magazines past the 2016-2017 time frame.”
According to the report, about 10% of the total periodical industry in 2009 was based on advertising and circulation revenue directly or indirectly associated with all digital product lines. In 2014, mediaIDEAS forecasts that the digital portion of the US periodical industry will be worth approximately $8.5 billion, or about 28% of the total market. And, by 2020 it will have increased to approximately $20 billion, or about 58% of the total market.
Because of several factors including the aggressive adoption of new delivery mediums, such as Apple’s iPad and next generation color e-paper e-readers, the report finds that digital will go from representing 10% in 2009 to representing 58% of the magazine industry in 2020. And, conversely, print will go from representing more than 75% of the market’s value in 2008, to less than one third by 2020.
Not sure I should question their numbers, but lack of standardization could throw a monkey-wrench into their estimates. I don’t foresee real progress happening until the majority of magazines are available in universal (non-proprietary) formats that can be read by multiple devices, including computers, dedicated readers and smartphones.
They also have to work out a way to control access to subscribers/purchasers, or figure out a way to have advertisers pay the entire cost of delivery. If they want to have that in place by 2020, they’d better scramble.