TechCrunch is running another “death of the bookstore” prediction, in which a columnist extrapolates from the current amazing performance of e-books to predict that the last print bookstores will close by 2018.
There really isn’t all that much that’s newsworthy about this particular set of predictions, but it interests me that people continue to make them. I mean, why do people expect that the millions and millions of paper books are just going to evaporate overnight?
There are still plenty of used CD stores, some of which even sell records and tapes as well as CDs, even in this era of the iTunes digital download. Sure, the dedicated “music-only” brick and mortar stores have gone away, but the thriving aftermarket still exists and there are plenty of places that deal in new CDs as a sideline. Why shouldn’t paper books be the same?
Why dont bookstores just provide e-book download facilities in stores and PoD services? Theres still room for bookshops…
Phone calls and photos are the same, but different. Books are the same but different. Although all these communication media have fully migrated to digital technologies some distinctions persist while many others dissolve. Phone calls, photos and books are now infiltrated with visual, audio, textual and reference transactions. Each has eclipsed its core function along with a general shift to screen delivery. Books have a longer legacy of reading refinement and user expectation within this communication mash-up and this book heritage is proving un-obsolete and so a contest between screen and print books continues.
Continuing print book production reproduces almost all ebook releases while 20-30% of print is published without ebook equivalents. So aside from used book stock there is also a continuing print publication industry. Book stores are also entering into print publishing using high speed copiers.
Six years is hardly “overnight,” especially in the digital age.
The issue here isn’t whether printed books will still be around… but whether dedicated brick-and-mortar stores can afford to deliver them in this changing market. With on-demand printing capability, any store can provide a book (I’d expect to see the service made available in FedEx-Kinkos eventually). And with web shopping and overnight delivery, not to mention the larger online “inventory,” it’s going to be harder and harder for B&M stores to survive.
Their best option is to learn some new tricks, and become less dedicated to print books. Selling other products, especially ebooks, and offering other local services, will give them more viability and profitability. And taking on and selling used books would probably be a good idea, too; those used books have to go somewhere, and with fewer and fewer used bookstores around, a lot of them are just getting landfilled now.
But they have to show a desire to do that, and so far, the big bookstores haven’t shown that intent at all. It’s no wonder that, as the stores plant their feet and ready themselves for battle, others are pointing out that they’re standing in a tar pit.
Print books stores won’t vanish anytime soon and neither will print books.
What *will* vanish are two outdated business models; the one about giant regional book warehouses that expect customers to come to them, the other about Publishers batch printing books on-spec, accepting retailer returns with no penalty, and either warehousing or liquidating a major portion of the print run.
My expectation is that print books will follow *exactly* the model of Vynil LPs and evolve into a specialty business built on small pre-sold batches or POD, supplemented by used book sales. B&M retailing will likely fall to small boutiques linked to regional warehouses and/or brokers. Online retailing will follow the Amazon model of listing both new and used releases in the same catalog.
Either way, it *will* be a very challenging business to be in and the effort to move product a lot higher than stacking a few boxes of the Harry Potter boxes and getting out of the way of the stampede. 🙂
So a *lot* of bookstores, chain and indie, will fall.
But some will remain that figure out how to add real value (over online) to whatever fraction of the reading public eschews ebooks.
Looking down the road, say five years, I wouldn’t be surprised to see BooksAMillion gone but I would be surprised to see Half-Price Books gone. The former seem to be reasonably well run, but they also seem to cling stubbornly to the old model. If they are going to adapt, they should have *started* adapting already. The Borders implosion has bought them some time but the dust will start settling soon.
There is a tendency by both sides (both digital and print) to overstate the strength of their medium and understate its weaknesses. This distorts their perception. ebooks are still nowhere near good enough for much beyond “narrative content” and adoption will likely start leveling off in NorthAm in the next year or two. Print book supporters rely too much on tradition and the theoretical value of the first sale doctrine and forget their business model relies overmuch on volume.
There is trouble ahead for *both*.
if language is going to be played around with then fine. But basically vinyl is dead now. It is dead as a mass media and that is what really matters. The fact that there is a residual tail of specialist shops in the side streets here and there is meaningless.
Paper book shops, as we know them, will definitely be dead before 2018. When sales drop below a critical level and costs of smaller and smaller print runs make them uncommercial, it will make no sense.
I can see a surge in swap shops for a few years while the paper fetishists persist. And what we will be left with is a shrinking number of POD outlets which will then die out by 2025. That is how I see it.
But the danger of extrapolating is that we assume no further step changes in devices and business models. New ideas, devices and models could change everything in either direction.
I have very mixed emotions about this. I have to admit I have the Kindle which is amazing. It’s lightweight, easy to read, and has huge storage capacity and easy access to thousands of cheap publications. However, I love spending time in bookstores. There’s just no other way to get the full experience… sipping coffee, scanning all the latest publications, etc. In my opinion, there is a chance for bookstores to survive if they specialize in good used books that people find interesting.