Remember the argument that hardware companies don’t want to make a low-cost e-book reader? Well, I wonder what the skeptics will say now. Quanta, the maker of the e-book-friendly OLPC laptop with the high-res screen, “will ship with its own XO-like laptops,” according to Ars Technica, with a price in the $200 range. That’s the start. Costs will only go down, a lot. And apparently the hardware will be sold in developed countries this year or next—including, I would at least hope, the States.
So does this mean that by the end of 2007, I could be happily running FBReader or another good reading program on a bargain-priced laptop-tablet? And that within five years a better machine will cost $75? From a TeleRead perspective, I’m in seventh heaven. Check out the crazy things I was saying in ’92 about hardware specs.
The $35 e-book reader
Of course, if you want to talk about just e-book reading, not full-fledged computing, we could well be seeing $35 readers on the shelves at Walmart in the next five or ten years.
Meanwhile, if we’re talking about “real computers,” keep in mind that the OLPC machine is designed for networking, and that it should be easier than ever for books to be social objects in the virtual world. I suspect that younger people will care increasingly about book-sharing and -displaying in the virtual sense. That should address yet other concerns about the viability of e-books. Who needs to visit friends and admire stuffed bookcases when their libraries can be on display online? Yes, the p-world has its attractions, and the joys of comparing p-libraries won’t go away soon. But the e-world is catching up, or at least can if the legal and business details can be worked out. Bruce Lehman’s retreat from the DMCA just might be major progress in that regard.
More on the $200 possibility: Slashdot.
Other hardware news: The iLiad’s improving prospects as a B2B machine (MobileRead).
But then, there’s always bloat.
A current PDA is more than powerful enough to run MacOS 7 or Win98, and cost a couple hundred dollars. But do we get such things? No, because Apple and MSFT have gone on to bigger, heftier versions of their OS that require more disk space, more RAM, more potent CPUs and so forth.
The Quanta announcement already talks of a ‘beefed-up’ version of the XO, and of running Vista on it!
That article from SF author Charlie Stross mentions that we could have Palm Pilot-style ebook devices today costing $50. But today people want color screens with higher resolution, they want mp3 playback, they want more capacity (or at least manufacturers seem to think we do).
The software has always been a moving target requiring ever-more-powerful hardware. I wish it weren’t the case, but I see no reason to believe the future will be any different.
I can appreciate your points, Pond, but I think Quanta can keep costs down and do well by positing the machine as an interactive device that allows reading, email, Net radio, some video, etc.—in other words, a cheaper, better Pepper Pad. The Pad’s a damn interesting machine, but it’s up against a price barrier. In many ways, not all, a refined XO adapted for the general market could fill that slot even if it lacked some wrinkles such as splash-resistance. Remember, too, the huge school market. The key is to interest people in functions and simplicity rather than in being able to run every bleepin’ program. Thanks. David
Pond said, “Apple and MSFT have gone on to bigger, heftier versions of their OS that require more disk space, more RAM, more potent CPUs and so forth.”
There is a fun website at Oxford University that illustrates the changing capabilities and resource requirements of operating systems. The website shows that the old operating system DOS can now be embedded in a browser using Java. Classic DOS games such as Space Invaders, Lemmings. Commander Keen, and Prince of Persia can be played. This means that DOS programs will be executable on even weakly-powered e-books in the future.
The strategy employed by the Oxford people involves using a Java program to emulate “an x86 PC with fully virtual peripherals”. The website indicates that one can run FreeDOS anywhere one has a Java Virtual Machine (JVM) e.g., a “mobile phone, set-top box, possibly even your refrigerator”. Hence if your e-book reader has a capable browser or if it simply supports JVM then it can run DOS.
This is what I hope: the OLPC becomes the replacement for my daily planner and my library. The software on it will be a relatively lean Linux dist good for some minor office stuff and of course reading (esp. while commuting or traveling). Since the device is designed for networking, I will have remote access to my desktop at home where I have serious CPU horsepower, my research apps, and all that other bloat. I think I’ll only lack for a printer and that is less of a problem if everyone has an equally handy device in their hands.
That’s my vision. PDA’s can’t do this now for me. E-book readers can’t do it. And laptops as they currently exist, have much more horsepower than I want in my lap and absolutely suck as ebook readers. This is fabulous news.
FUTURE’S SO BRIGHT I GOTTA WEAR SHADES.
I’d pay more for an ebook reader with Galaga!
🙂
I don’t want a poor man’s laptop. I want something that is lightweight, fast, has a good screen, a long battery life, and doesn’t fry any chance of having offspring when sitting on my lap. But as Pond says, Quanta likely doesn’t want to go there. A pity, they could have had my 200 bucks.
Let me put it differently. With a couple of exceptions, I am very happy with my Palm. I don’t need it’s form factor: bigger is certainly an option. I could do without its low contrast screen and its clunky controls (press a button too hard, and it wipes your memory). I might buy a eBookwise if it had some serious input capabilities.
In other words I want something that works as an electronic notepad, preferably robust so that I could take it with me, preferably but not necessarily with wireless networking capabilities, so that I can work in the park without having to schlep the laptop along. I am sure such a device would double as a fantastic e-book reader.
The problem, I believe, isn’t so much that there isn’t a market for such a device, but rather that the start-up costs are rather steep for what is essentially a niche product.