Why Amazon needs Kindle 2.0, from two ZDNet bloggers, is a response to—guess what?—Why Amazon Doesn’t Need Kindle 2.0 in Forbes.
Josh Taylor and Andrew Nusca correctly say that Sony can catch up with the Kindle on features such as wireless downloads. And they also point to the Sony’s PRS-700, with backlighting and a touch screen. Wisely they even suggest that the company could sell more of the things with a snappier name.
Plastic Logic: The real threat?
But here’s what the Taylor-Nusca post leaves out—the possibility of the Plastic Logic e-reader (see YouTubes) or PixelQ screen technology turning into game changers. The much-delayed little Readius, blending e-reader and cellhone-ish features, is another one to watch even though I don’t think it’s going to hurt the Kindle as much as the others could in time. Pixel Qi’s display, remember, will be dirt-cheap to crank out in existing factories set up for LCDs and it will offer something that neither Sony nor Amazon does right now: color.
But Pixel Qi’s tech won’t be on the shelves until ’09, so the real Kindle threat could potentially be from the Plastic Logic machine, at least in the dedicated reader category. The PL device will have wireless, just like the Kindle—let’s hope that this can lead to a truly seamless book-buying experiences on another platform, so this isn’t Amazon-only.
Some are dismissing the Plastic Logic reader as a mere prototype, but if the company is correct, and, no I can’t verify this, the tablet will be out in the first half of 2009—soon enough for Amazon to feel some pain if it doesn’t release a Kindle 2 next year. An MIT Technology Review article even mentioned a January launch, although I suspect that’s been pushed back. From the Plastic Logic itself:
The Plastic Logic reader supports a full range of business document formats, such as Microsoft Word, Excel and Powerpoint, and Adobe PDFs, as well as newspapers, periodicals and books. It has an easy gesture-based user interface and powerful software tools that will help business users to organize and manage their information. Users can connect to their information either wired or wirelessly and store thousands of documents on the device. The reader incorporates E Ink technology for great readability and features low power consumption and long battery life…
Plastic Logic doesn’t mention the range of content choices, but if publishers can get behind it and iPhone-related products such as Stanza, then the threat of an Amazon or Apple monopoly of e-books could be considerably reduced. ePub is key here. Let’s hope that the IDPF can address ePub’s deficiencies and not let problematic DRM distract it from the main game, e-book format standards.
Let’s consider other issues, vis a vie the Kindle:
Screen size: Plastic Logic’s display is 8.5 x 11, a vast improvement over the Kindle’s six-inch-diagonal screen.
Price: Expected at one point to be in the general range of the Kindle’s. The company is officially mum on price.
Ruggedness: You reportedly can whack the Plastic Logic with a shoe without the device suffering damage. Imagine the advantage of shatterproof construction and a large screen for K-12 and other ed-related apps. Unlike the Kindle, the Plastic Logic machine can display textbooks illustrations in detail, although it, too, has the limits of monochrome for now. Color won’t be along for a few years.
Interface: The Plastic Logic uses a touch screen, unlike the Kindle. With a quick swipe you can turn pages.
Content: We know that Plastic Logic has been in touch with newspaper and magazine publishers and—I would hope—people in the book and e-book industry. Once again, fingers crossed on format issues. May the Plastic Logic device do ePub!
Wireless issue: The Plastic Logic machine will have wireless, as noted. I don’t know if this will be WiFi or a Kindle-style approach that lets you hook into a bookstore via cellphone-style wireless.
Important caveat: Remember, I have only seen the Plastic Logic device in videos. Perhaps when I try one out in person, I’ll run across a deal-breaker. I’d welcome people’s thoughts on the PL’s negatives, not just the positives.
Too much has been happening in the hardware department – with the new device controllers, Sony’s PRS 700 is so much more snappy that Amazon WILL have to bring a Kindle replacement soon. Also, Amazon is neither poor nor devoid of vision. Plus, they have employed Frog design to make a new case. Lets expect interesting things.
I have looked at the PRS 700, and think that Sony has completely botched the screen. The touchscreen turns the display awfully milky and soft. When put side by side with a PRS 500 or the Kindle, there is no way I would choose the PRS 700.
As for Plastic Logic: everything could happen. They have built this huge hundreds-of-million factory in East Germany, probably raking in lots of government subsidies. It is entirely possible that nothing useful comes from them next year–they have been at the early prototype stage for pretty long, and no-one knows how well they can do software and UI. Then again, perhaps they will be at Leipzig Book fair in March and completely blow our minds!
Also: There are several other companies, some of them probably in stealth mode, which are designing Kindle competitors. If the economy does not collapse in 09, this is going to be a great year for eBook readers.
I’m hoping the New York Times will adopt the Plastic Logic or a similar device as a means for distributing its newspaper to subscribers. I’d love to change my print subscription to an e-ink one.
> With a quick swipe you can turn pages.
Read: It takes so long to turn pages that we had to at least partially mask the horrible delay by requiring a large and slow (and screen-smudging(!)) physical action to initiate the page-turning.
I can’t believe there are people that actually would prefer some odd “wipe” instead of just pushing a button. Even if the wipe could be performed with one hand (and if it can’t then it’s so braindead I want to cry) it’s still a very awkward action whereas pushing a button is not. And if it can be performed with one hand, can it be performed also so that wiping won’t cover the text at the bottom of the screen (which usually is the text you’re trying to read precisely when turning the page)?
Marcus, count me as one of the people that prefer turning a page with a swipe. If you look at a video of the PL device they just use a small movement of their thumb to turn the page. Certainly that is no more effort than turning a physical page, but a lot more natural than pressing a button. I can’t wait for them to put their device on sale, I’ve even offered to review a prototype (no word on that yet, but they were polite enough to put me on a list). I realize their initial push in the market is going to be the professional business market & newspapers (per their website), but this device will also be perfect for children and adults in school. I do think they are missing the mark if they don’t make a 6 inch version for portable casual reading.
No glass just plastic — in the end that could mean a really cheap device.
Dealing with A4 pdf well (a factor of size) is an important transitory virtue. Not because paged fixed epublishing has a future, but because it taps into an established form of epublishing into a reading device where flowable text makes better sense. That had to be done and a number of eink devices are scaling up.
That is where glass vs plastic starts having a major effect. The bigger the device screen the more stress on the glass, thicker stronger glass is needed — the weight of the glass has to go up even if better stronger glass is used.
Flexible plastic has many advantages — scaling up, even to desk size is practical. Hinging two devices together for a book-like device is also practical.
I think this will take off.
> count me as one of the people that prefer turning a
> page with a swipe.
Even after you’ve tried both? No way, I don’t believe you. Even if you’d try to fool yourself to think it’s cool or whatever I simply can’t believe that you would prefer that 100 times more cumbersome motion than pressing a button. Not even if we’d ignore the smudge-problem.
> If you look at a video of the PL device they just
> use a small movement of their thumb to turn the
> page.
In the one video I just looked at it looked awful. The swipe itself looked very hard to do with one hand (and I’m sure many people will drop these things trying to turn the page without holding on to it with the other hand at the same time). There also didn’t seem to be any kind of feedback, and certainly not any tactile feedback. With buttons you usually get both tactile and audible feedback, the former of which is by far more important.
> Certainly that is no more effort than turning a
> physical page,
So? Turning a physical page is a nightmare compared to pressing a button. I’m read mostly sci-fi and the novels are pretty thick, and I used to drop them all the time when trying to turn the page with one hand. It’s not that it’s particularly hard most of the time to move the other hand into position and turn the page (and I’d prefer that over those awful 2000ms page-flips any day), but almost as often as not I have better things to do with my other hand (e.g. holding on to something so I don’t fall over when the bus suddenly hits the brakes).
> but a lot more natural than pressing a button.
No way! People press stuff all the time. People very seldom swipe stuff. My mother used to swipe stuff when inspecting how well I had cleaned my room, but even she didn’t seem to like it particularly much. 😉
And if you try to hold the thing with one hand by holding the device with your thumb vertically while trying to swipe horizontally with the same thumb it’s one of the most unnatural motions you can do with your thumb.
Really, the only problem with buttons are that due to the small motion it’s not very visible when you press a button, so there might be a small problem if you need to demonstrate pressing a button to a large group of people (not that I’ve ever seen anyone do that, but I’m sure someone has done it at some point). However, even that can be easily fixed by providing visual feedback e.g. using a glowring around the button.
Very slick. I have a feeling the deal-breaker will be price. I want.
Speaking of the Sony — was in my neighbourhood Sony store yesterday, and the salespeople were encouraging me to look at the older model of the reader v. the PRS 700. Interesting, no?
They say the back-lit version drains batteries for a much shorter life, and has other drawbacks. Maybe just trying to clear inventory?
>8.5 x 11, a vast improvement over the Kindle’s six-inch-diagonal screen.
For many things, sure. But the existing 6″ E-Ink displays are the same size as the printed area of a paperback. They are good enough for a lot of uses, and they are here now. Smaller devices are going to be cheaper to produce which brings us to the next point:
>Price: Expected at one point to be in the general range of the Kindle’s. The company is officially mum on price.
What they mean is, more than a Kindle – and because it is larger, they think these can be priced higher, too.
These devices really have to drop in price – if the eBookwise devices can sell for US$100, why can’t these? The goal should be prices lower than the Kindle. Get the sales volume up.
>Ruggedness:
This is a big deal, especially for this type of device.
>Interface: The Plastic Logic uses a touch screen, unlike the Kindle. With a quick swipe you can turn pages.
Yuk, I’m not a fan of touchscreens for navigation while reading (I have multiple touchscreen and digitiser devices for everything else, though. And I like them).
Terms like “simple” and “quick” raise alarms every time I see them used.
>Content: We know that Plastic Logic has been in touch with newspaper and magazine publishers
Now, why should PL need to do this? What business model are they pursuing here? Not a Kindle-type subscription model I hope.
>Wireless issue:
I have no doubt that we are going to see more devices with Kindle-type wireless built in, until eventually they become ubiquitous. But I don’t want to pay a premium for this, and neither do I want to be restricted in content or other uses of the device because of the business model required to support this. I also don’t want a battery life penalty.
I think that the absolute minimum requirements for next generation hardware are: small size, rugged, long battery life, clear display, easy to use, easy to manage content, complete format support.
I don’t care about colour, and the speed of existing e-ink is good enough.
That means that from the description of the PL device, they really only bring light weight, ruggedness and a touchscreen to the party; price is very likely to be too high; usability, content and interface are unknown at this point.
Despite it’s potential, PL aren’t really ticking a lot of boxes here.