MP3 sales a decade ago were squat. Now iTunes and other digital audio might eventually kill off CDs.
So will E do the same to P in the book area? Peter Kent of DNL eBooks notes that 2007 e-book sales beat those for MP3s in 2004. A little hope, maybe—even though I myself am interested in E flourishing, not P dying. Check out his thoughts as summed up in Book Business Magazine.
DRM-hobbled
Alas, Peter’s company is into DRM, and his remarks seem to reflect that. I tried DNL software last September when HarperCollins started experimenting with video-embedded-books, and I found the "protection" to be a hassle. I just hope DNL is easier to use these days, and also that Peter’s outfit will consider experimenting with social DRM if it really wants to make e-books easier for nontechies.
Video
As for video embedded in e-books, one of the features of DNL’s software, I say, "Depends." I myself like fiction without video. But others may disagree, and it’s good to see experimentation. Vids for nonfiction, especially how-tos? Definitely!
On the issue of dedicated machines vs. others, Peter thinks multi-use will prevail, and there I’d heartily agree even though we’ll also see Kindle and Sony Readers take off. Just how many gadgets can you carry around at once?
CD sales continue to plummet. Do they really think they aren’t reasons for it other than the piracy bogeyman?
http://mikecane2008.wordpress.com/2008/06/20/cd-sales-in-meltdown/
“CD sales continue to plummet. Do they really think they aren’t reasons for it other than the piracy bogeyman?”
I think this is an important question. I don’t know the answer but I think it’s reasonable to consider the possibility taht a strong competitive alternative to CDs (MP3s) has impacted CDs. I don’t think you’ll find many people who’d argue that CDs didn’t virtually destroy the market for vinyl. Why shouldnt’ digital downloads do the same to CDs? (Just as digital downloads are replacing floppies for software distribution)
People still listen to music and there are more people than ever before–so, the demand is still there. It’s certainly not the case that they’re all listening to ad-supported radio.
I don’t like DRM, but this doesn’t mean it isn’t logical to conclude that pirated music has impacted CD sales. Would these losses have been less if the industry had instantly embrassed change? Maybe. But that’s water under the dam–and sales are still falling.
I think we lose credibility when we scoff at those who are concerned about piracy. Sure some pirates wouldn’t buy music. But can we really conclude that about all of them? Sure some artists may be helped by the exposure they get through pirate versions of their work–but is it fair to insist that all of us base our business model on the assumption that somehow we’ll make it up in t-shirts? As a believer in eBooks, I certainly don’t want to make it up in selling paper. That would be like Gutenberg giving away his product and hoping to make it up because people will want more hand-caligraphied novels.
Rob Preece
Publisher, http://www.BooksForABuck.com
Rob, I don’t think anyone will deny that piracy happens. BUT—it happens, under the terms ‘theft’ or ‘shoplifting’ in every single sales-oriented business on the planet. Ebooks or music or audio books aren’t nearly the special cases they think they are, and it bugs me when I hear all the whining about piracy because I think they are spending their time whining about this instead of focusing on real solutions that will actually increase their bottom line. iTunes, eMusic, Audible and Fictionwise (to name a few) have proven that people WILL buy digital media. It can be sold. People will pay real money for it. So if it were me, I would be looking for ways to make it easy as possible for these people, these actual customers, to get as much of it as they could, off my service, with me getting the profits. Instead of spending time on this, they are spending the time in a fruitless battle against a tiny few ‘pirates.’ Theft occurs in ANY business. They will never stamp it out completely. Instead of trying to, they should get with the times and figure out how to sell what people want to buy.
For example, explain to the the thought process behind this one:
– We have a two-parter paperback series
– All right, let’s sell it on eBookwise
– But only Part 1
How does such a decision even get rationalized? All the people who bought Part 1 (including myself) and then go back to the site when they are done to buy the rest of the story, and nope, sorry, we didn’t make an agreement yet for that one. WHY NOT? Here is a newsflash, you may lose a tiny bit of money to piracy of a five-year-old niche paperback only available in asinine restricted formats, but you will lose even MORE money when you choose NOT TO SELL IT AT ALL. And then these people go to the media and whine about piracy? Sorry, I don’t get it. I don’t get it at all.
Cory Doctorow has an interesting tidbit over at his boing boing blog. Apparently his publisher of audio editions are mp3 and drm-free. Random House is moving all their authors to drm-free world? And Cory reports that Amazon refused to sell one of his audiobooks, because it had no drm.
ficbot–
I’m in violent agreement. Digital content can be sold. DRM imposes significant costs on both producer and customer. Selling part one as digital to persuade people to buy part two in paper are kookie.
The point I’m trying to make is that there are plenty of people who deny piracy or who make blanket assumptions that pirates wouldn’t pay anyway, so there’s no harm/no foul. When we see significant piracy accompanied by an otherwise inexplicable drop in demand for the sold product, I think we are entitled to assume, in the absence of evidence to the contrary, that there may well be a causal relationship.
I agree with pond that Amazon is not doing itself any favors by insisting on DRM–unless it’s worried about lawsuits from publishers/rights-holders who could argue that Amazon was obligated to provide some protection before selling zero-DRM products. In the case where the publisher specifically asked for no DRM, I can’t see this argument.
Rob Preece
Publisher, http://www.BooksForABuck.com
I really dislike a lot of what Kent says/predicts, but that’s probably just because he’s trying to pitch his doomed-to-fail inconvenienceware. Apparently he thinks that adding gimmicky things like “3-D e-book technology” will make customers overlook the DRM. For that, I wish him a slow and painful complete commercial failure.
I pray that the rest of the Book Business article will stand as a tome of humiliation for him and his business. “I believe that more than 99 percent of all e-books are being read on PCs.” Sure, it might make his DRM seem practical, but who really prefers reading on their PC? Nobody I know, and I, for certain, absolutely *HATE* reading on my computer.
“‘I think the real concern is that we don’t want to go down the same road the music industry went,’ he said. The solution, he said, is digital rights management (DRM) that works.” Isn’t the point of DRM to make things not work? I see his DRM platform as yet another obstruction between the customer and their book, and despite however ‘easy’ it is, it will cause problems eventually.
I pray for Kent’s sake that he sees the errors of his current venture, and that after his fall, he will find true happiness devoting the rest his life towards the dreams of Richard Stallman.
>>>So if it were me, I would be looking for ways to make it easy as possible for these people, these actual customers, to get as much of it as they could, off my service, with me getting the profits.
Which is precisely what Steve Jobs did.
And Universal Music goes apeshit because, you know, NO ONE ELSE has figured that out and so they cry “monopoly”! And NBC whines that they aren’t allowed to GOUGE customers with Steve Jobs as their henchman.
Please. Some companies deserve to go out of business. Some even beg for it!