That’s what James McQuivey of Forrester Research says in an article today in Paid Content.
Here’s a snippet:
We’re so confident of the long ramp Amazon still has ahead of it that our latest eReader forecast shows that for at least the next year, eReaders of all flavors will outnumber iPads in the US. My latest report, published today, includes a summary of the forecast and a data dive into a survey of more than 4,000 people about which devices they want most; quick tease here—more people want to buy an eReader of any kind than want to buy an iPad this year though the iPad has more likely buyers than any one single eReader. However, by the time we enter 2012, tablet PCs like the iPad will surpass eReaders. At that point, a healthy 15.5 million adults in the US will own an eReader. And the number will continue to climb, though slowly compared to tablet PC growth. By 2015, we see the eReader market starting to cap at just under 30 million US adults. That’s nearly all the people who read 2+ books a month.
“At that point, a healthy 15.5 million adults in the US will own an eReader.”
Maybe, but the price will be below $100 for an eReader and it most likely will be sold at a loss to customers by Amazon or some other big name merchant.
The only thing people will actually spend any “real money” on will be an color screen tablet of some type.